Apple. The Balance of Trade deficit is about $52B a month. Central Banks In the last few weeks, I have seen a jump in pendings up to the 3M line. But below 2M, and especially below 1.25M is strong in coastal zips, as well as on the west side of LA. So for each county, there is a median price. Nothing is different this time. Affordable places are affordable for a reason. It cost something like $200 to take a Uhaul from Las Vegas to the Bay area but cost $2,000 to rent in the other direction due to lack of supply. Housing Bubble 2 Here are some real examples of people soliciting room mates in San Diego. ), and you can afford it comfortably, then do it. Cannot forget that. Then ALL transactions of ALL counties are thrown into one big bucket — not the 9 median prices but each of the tens of thousands of transactions — and the halfway line through those thousands of transactions is the median price for the Bay Area. Please don’t think I’m a choir boy, I was at new century financial when the housing bubble was a baby, now with reckless fed induced housing rally nearing its end. I saw the results when I visited the beautiful “Natural Bridges beach “ and the car next to my car had been vandalized . Hahahaha, you made me laugh so hard, god bless you. In what securities are these underwater mortgages hidden? See https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24561376.html, which is the article entitled “How Goldman secretly bet on the U.S. housing crash”. Few years ago bidding wars were blamed on Institutional investors who were buying houses in cash and by bulk, recently realtors are saying its the people from the Bay area who are buying investment properties in Sacramento to rent it out and 1 in 10 people is putting 20% down which makes me think how are they buying investment properties to rent if they are not putting 20% down. After double-digit year-over-year gains in 2018, the 12-month moving average began to taper in early 2019, approached zero growth in June and July, turned negative on a year-over-year basis in August (-0.8%) for the first time since July 2012 when the Bay Area was emerging from Housing Bust 1, and fell 2.3% in September compared to September last year: In California overall, the market has split: Single family house prices are still rising: The median price at $605,680 in September, was up 4.7% from September last year; but condo prices have been falling for months, with the median price down 2.1% year-over-year. Ed, the power is in the money. It’s kind of annoying. People do not seem to be that worried about earthquakes . Bay Area Real Estate will have less impact as the majority of the workforce is in the technology sector. We may see drops but we return stronger consistently. A horse? Kindly contact if there is any availability. As it is, the major highways in the bay area are not nearly as bad SoCal freeways but I never like driving in SF itself. One pocket hit the hardest? San Mateo county is also doing ok. JZ, my opinion is if not NYC or LA, then ignore it. The inflation rate, the tax rates, the minimum wage, the mortgage rate, the short term interest rate, the debt to gdp, the social security tax and pay out rates, 50% plus of health payment system, the black market illegal immigration labor market. IMHO still too early to call it a price downturn. Deflating the housing market, and costing voters their “equity” is political suicide. This might take a long time to play out, unless we get a stock market crash which tends to trigger a housing bust in a hurry in the Bay Area. Chinese money has been waning as a positive factor and will eventually become a negative influence . One buyer at a bazillion dollars, does *not* make everyone’s home worth a bazillion – there are not enough bazillion sure buyers out there. Sydney, Australia made a top ten list of global housing bubble cities a couple of years ago. Top reason Chinese buy here? Hope your move goes well. Wolf, the data does NOT matter and we can ignore apples/oranges…. some details obscured: I’m a recent grad from UCSD and just started working at xxx I just found an apartment and I have a single with a private bathroom available for $1300 in XXXX apartments in UTC. Unless sales *volume* data is also included, pricing data can be seriously misleading – usually on the pro bubble side. Unless that trends down for 3-4 years, or suddenly drops 40% (which won’t happen), those assets will continue to increase in cost and value over the long run. Rents are very tight. It’s hard to compare metro areas. Your rusted Volkswagen bus in the driveway Type. “Commutes can be hellish” is an understatement. FOMO and YOLO bay area culture cannot sustain both startup and house prices. Ask the people who are doubling up in a small bedroom sharing house with 4/5 more people complete stranger.. Wake me up when there is at least a 33% drop in prices! While I think we are unlikely to see a drop as large as that, housing is like a cruise ship, takes a long time to turn around. The 12-MMA dropped 5.6% year-over-year, the fifth month in a row of ever larger year-over-year declines. So next is who is holding all the bad paper? I read an article about a Haitian neighborhood built on higher ground inland from the glamorous Miami Beach ocean view condos. averaged 30,680, so the finance ministry’s projection for 2019 was more than 3,300 greater than the recent historic average.”, Full article here (and it’s from a pinko rag that hates development unless it’s free public housing This has already happened to the Unicorn Bubble and Uber has been cutting workers recently (fake tech WeWork will next). Indeed it is. There are a number of micro climates in the Bay Area . On Tuesday, November 3, 2020, the last piece will be pulled. Yet, James’ utterance, made to the Select Standing Committee on Finance and Government Services, received no publicity. Median means half sell for more, half sell for less. As far as per capita, who cares. Find out which housing markets will succumb to the downturn here. This comment really resonates with me. China The lowest interest rates ever are bringing many motivated buyers into the market, which has led to the fastest sales growth in the California real estate market in a decade. Bra.gov data shows LA-Long beach GDP2017=1 trillion while San Francesco-Oakland 500B and San Jose -Santa clara/Sunnyvale 250B. The Bay Area just said goodbye to a decade when real estate prices soared to astronomical heights. We were a long way (75-80 miies) from the epicenter so there wasn’t a lot of damage but the shaking was severe. That’s why Super Ultra Dove Deluxe did his UTurn back in December. Oh yes, about 20% of the houses are unoccupied investment properties. Means you can afford more reverse osmosis plants for pools and golf courses, and not have to tap the Sacramento so far up river because getting it’s too salty for y’all. Bubble reinflated for a decade with easy credit/money creation but soon the true nature of the difference between debt and real wealth will reveal itself; already started to happen. I think housing is going to trend in a small range up and down with the general direction up as other prices catch up to the current money printing. Competition for low skilled work in the US is dominated by migrants, and low skilled locals turn to govt programs. Snark about nativists is foolish. Might I suggest Ryder they have local commercial trucks with lift gates too. Losses are accelerating as transaction volume has collapsed. So how do the politicians react to the homeless problem. They are moving to the mid-cities. If you can sustain on very less money with no insurance to pay or other big taxes, you may enjoy India Look for a crash in real estate in markets where Chinese have been buying property for cash(SF,LA,NYC,MIA,SEA,,VAN,BOS,TOR), hmmmm. The luxury market in particular has flourished. The fact that property assessments reset to fair market value on a sale (under Prop 13) may create some sort of ceiling on prices. The bay area is not even in the big boy leagues. I am saving downpayment to buy a house in the Sacramento area, whats your opinion about Sacramento? If you take out the abnormally high 2018 spike for Santa Clara and Alameda counties, the uptrend still holds. Here are the details of that works: This will be the story of our post-global world for the next fifty years where economies in Africa and Asia will have sustained 5-10% economic growth. They buy up land from their cronies at unbelievable prices and build mixed use developments. The Chinese, Russians, and others accumulating a lot of gold will make the FED irrelevant pretty darn soon hopefully anyway. a 10% drop after prices doubled in 5 years is not a bust. As a condition to any other help, we should require that ALL such banks’ stocks be turned over to the tax payers (since the stocks of insolvent banks would be worth zero) and put into the social security administration, so taxpayers can profit from the banksters’ shenanigans. http://watsoninternationalorganization.com/the-value-of-the-dollar-and-how-it-affects-real-estate/, Realogy Holdings Corp (RLGY) is the leading provider of real estate services in the US under the brand names of Coldweel Banker, ERA, Sotheby’s, and a few others. Increasing the minimum wage faster than average wages only decreases the value of the dollar (or any other currency), and yet this type of inflation is hardly noticed by the greater public. The California exodus is real and in my opinion is the biggest risk that California and specially SF and LA will face in the Next downturn. There is a lot of speculation as to whether the housing market will crash. I was just thinking about how the Fed’s control nearly all aspects of the economy. Also, Chicago, Houston, Washington DC, and Dallas-Ft Worth all have larger GDP than SF-Oakland. Read… I see illegal shacks built in backyard and rented out to “guest workers”. You don’t really care about appreciation as its probably your last home. I find schools here very competitive , just compare the admission rate of top universities here, is below 10% compared to Europe where it is 100%. Good luck. ….go figure.) But the wild card will be the changes to the NFIP rates starting in 2020. I presume they vote a very narrow interest when it comes to property value consideration. A year ago I read that Uhaul had a shortage of trucks in the Bay Area due to people moving to places like San Diego and Las Vegas. An economy based selling ever increasing housing shacks to each other and working for “high tech” firms that will never make a profit. 9. Thing is a hurricane storm surge is a localized thing. The Bay Area housing markets with the largest year-over-year increases in the number of listings accepting offers in June 2020 were the 4 outer Bay Area counties of Monterey (up 61%), Santa Cruz (58%), Sonoma (47%), and Napa (37%). There have been a number of stories about wine country prices being impacted by the 2-year anniversary of the fires, with a significant number of people who lost homes finally giving up on rebuilding and just buying when the standard two years of insurance payments for rent end in October. Discussion re SD and India were noteworthy. Traffic is horrible with the Bay Area among the worst in the country. There are four agencies who have their hand out for a permit. Thanks. Years of restrictive rules leading to the current Housing affordability Crisis is really going to back and bite people (NIMBYs) in the ass when they see there is little demand left for their multimillion dollar homes. Big corporations know this, and that’s partially why they too have been moving to more favorable areas. Canada I’m pretty outdoorsy and trying to live close to UTC so I can get back into surfing. When people talk about 99 year leases on property, the extinguishing rate is 1% per year. Without ALL of the required permits, nothing happens. Not flood zone at least. You are stupid to not go out on the risk curve with bonds RELATED: Building a Better Bay Area: The Housing Shift According to an ABC7 data analysis of real estate data, there are 147 luxury condos on the market … A new analysis from Veros Real Estate Solutions suggests the housing market slowdown is likely to last until 2020. Published on 6/9/2020 San Francisco Bay Area real estate was in a bubble that deflated by 11.5% in 2018. They are down 10% in the last 12 months and Zillow predicts out the current trend and estimates a 13% decline over the next 12 months. In June, the median house price fell 6% year-over-year to $662,500: In Napa County, the median house price fell 4.6% year-over-year to $705,750: This is where house prices were going to explode because all the IPO billionaires and millionaires from Uber, Lyft, and a bunch of other companies would be suddenly buying homes, a time-honored real-estate hype theory that had been proven wrong before. If we get a real trust-buster in the Democratic primaries we could see the big money rushing to back Trump against it. You could basically buy a home in 2016 for same price as in 2006. West coast real estate may rise due to the events in Hong Kong. Hubris-a-plenty. CraicOfDawn – you’re learning. You can donate. It is courageous to spend all of your income, plus the income you haven’t earned yet. People fail to realize how onerous property taxes can be. Then spring buying season kicked in, and in June, the median price reached $1.76 million, up 8.8% from June last year, but up only 1.7% from the prior record in February 2018. Data must be so skewed and we need to look closer what the mainstream really buys. “Which,” said James, “is a very strong number.”. I have been researching beach property in southern N. Carolina. Buying in the US is easy for Canadians, so get ready to be priced out by yet another group. Also rising HOA fees adversely affect value, as my late mother learned the hard way. …Living conditions in India are better than in San Diego… So I look up populations. I don’t know if this is true, but if it is, Canadian real estate is also in for a big climb. Wait till Pooh bear Xi demands the laundered money back….that’s when the executions start. Early signs suggest the coronavirus spread is pumping the brakes on the re-accelerating Bay Area housing market. We should be so lucky! Really enjoy the commentors that are drawen by your great well researched work. Prices are still up slightly. Californians saved themselves with prop 13. What this means is people have done the rent vs. buy calc with the new tax law and a flood of renters are causing rents to jump. Oh, ZipVan is good for smaller loads too. This run-up was unjustified and fueled by cheap debt and pulled-forward demand. They get more for their Yuan in Canada for pretty cheap once they look into cities like Ottawa and Montreal. Heck, why only buy one San Diego shack? The median price of a San Francisco Bay Area home sold last month fell slightly compared with the prior-year period, marking the first annual drop since the bottom of the last housing crash… And the low end always gets hit harder and faster than the high end, a reminder to choose your parents carefully. In Contra Costa County, the median house price ticked up 0.9% in September compared to a year ago, to $656,000 but was down 6.6% from the peak in June 2018 and is now back where it had first been in May 2017. SF had a bunch of overvalued companies due to FED printing and LA houses are anchored on solid robust world class GDP. Do the FOREIGNERS have extra liquidity available for R.E. In the greater Los Angeles region, single detached homes rose $22,000 to a new price of $553,000.. San Francisco Bay Area, home prices jumped $35,000 or 3.6% over last month to a new average price of … The NASDAQ at about 2000 is still only 40% of the 5000 it was at the peak of the recent stock market bubble. DC and Seattle are arguably more powerful than LA as well. If prices aren’t going down, there’s no risk so you may as well buy as many as possible. voters who vote for politicians. An individual moving from Mississippi to California has more in common with someone from Guatemala who’s likewise try to get there than not. Better to have slow, polluting, winding traffic snake through city streets than a fast and efficient highway connection it seems they think. I left India 20 year back but the India now is a completely different India. The Bay Area sticks out like sore thumb: The Bay Area is vast: Nine counties spread around a series of bays, of which the “San Francisco Bay” is only one. Lamorinda Real Estate Market Trends. Perhaps people are tiring of the number 2 on the sidewalk in SF. Reserves is the new cash. You have no idea how bad it is out there. Or the de facto announcement of a downturn in the economy…. Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? A bust or natural disaster may temporarily drop pricing but over all the area will continue to grow in time.